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Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
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He said the Authority’s role was to protect the public while ensuring gambling benefited Botswana. Kemorwale added that it was working with police against illegal promoters who make misleading promises of wealth, and that its approach to licensed operators emphasised guidance and compliance alongside enforcement.
The dispute over the legal gambling age comes as the Gambling Authority steps up its warnings about illegal online betting.
Speaking at the 2026 South East Region Staff Excellence Awards in Gaborone, Kemorwale said unlicensed platforms were diverting an estimated P850m ($63.2 million) from Botswana’s economy each year and exposing children and teenagers to unregulated gambling.
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Following a down year in Las Vegas, where visitor volume slowed 7.5%, the casino town has stabilized and rebounded in 2026, albeit only slightly. The LVCVA says visitor volume was up 0.5% through July.
Room rates for Strip properties have increased 3.5% in 2026. Strip occupancy is flat from a year ago.
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