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What is Santas Xmas Rush?
That widening breadth is vital for the industry at a time when some analysts estimate volume could jump to $10 trillion by 2035 – a projection that is largely rooted in other categories surpassing sports for the top spot.
Nearly a third of respondents told Fullstory that increased event contract breadth could compel them to consistently choose a prediction market over a sportsbook.
Sportsbook operators have an inherent advantage over prediction markets in that the former can offer significantly larger sign-up and retention bonuses and gaming companies are leaning into those expenditures this football season.
What is Santas Xmas Rush?
Online gambling participation over four weeks reached 39% (16% excluding lottery-only players), while in-person gambling participation was 29% (18% excluding lottery-only players).
Top non-lottery activities during the period included scratchcards (13%), betting (10%) and online instant win games (8%).
Betting skewed male, with 16% of men gambling on betting compared to 4% of women. Age-wise, overall gambling participation peaked among 45- to 64-year-olds (56%-59%), when excluding lotteries the highest participation was among 35- to 44-year-olds (35%).
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Robinson calls prediction markets “the main event”. His argument is not simply that US customers are moving from sportsbooks to prediction markets. The more important point is that sportsbooks no longer have the relatively protected market that was once assumed.
Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com and DraftKings’ own prediction-market operation are all competing for activity around sporting events. Beynon says prediction markets are having a larger effect on valuations than on fundamentals so far.
The existence of a new competitor does not automatically mean sportsbook revenue will collapse. But valuations do not require proof of collapse to fall. A loss of confidence in future growth can be enough.
