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The Commission’s investigation into what constitutes “informed choice” in gambling involved a multi-method approach.
Researchers conducted a rapid desk review of 53 relevant sources, three deliberative focus groups segmented by gambling product type (sports betting, online casino/slots and land-based gambling) and four in-depth interviews with people identified as being at higher risk of harm (Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI) score of 8 or more).
A total of 22 participants were purposely recruited to provide detailed insights.
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However, some media industry observers have questioned whether trading activity can reliably stand in for broader public opinion. There are also concerns among critics over the growing links between news organizations and prediction platforms.
At the same time, prediction market operators are facing regulatory tussles in the US. State regulators are moving to shut down the firms under gambling laws. The companies say their contracts should be regulated at the federal level as derivatives.
However, the sector has grown substantially despite such disputes. Bernstein predicted in April that annual prediction market volume could reach $1 trillion by 2030. The research estimated volume was around $51 billion in 2025 and could grow to around $240 billion in 2026.
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As with California, sports wagering is illegal in Texas. Greg Abbott, a three-term governor, is up for re-election in November, along with Dan Patrick, his lieutenant governor. Patrick, who vehemently opposes sports betting, also serves as president of the Texas Senate in his current role. Several attempts to legalise sports wagering since the 2018 PASPA decision have been foiled under Patrick’s leadership.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is in the middle of a heated US Senate campaign against Democratic challenger James Talarico. Paxton will be succeeded as Texas AG by state Senator Mayes Middleton, a Republican from Galveston, or his Democratic opponent Nathan Johnson, a state senator from Dallas.
State Senator Bob Hall represents Senate District 2 in Texas, a district that contains parts of Dallas. Hall, 84, did not see a distinction between event contracts and sports wagers, noting that the former is just dressed up in a different manner.
